Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced its worst performance in nearly fifty years in 2025, despite high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, which traditionally would support the dollar's strength [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Dynamics - The dollar's decline occurred unexpectedly, as traditional analysis tools indicated it should strengthen due to high interest rates and capital inflows [1][3]. - The capital flow shifted towards gold and Chinese assets, with gold prices reaching over $5,500, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar as a safe haven [6][4]. - The relationship between trade deficits and exchange rates has changed, with attempts to reduce the trade deficit through tariffs not leading to the expected strengthening of the dollar [7][8]. Group 2: Shifts in Economic Theories - Traditional frameworks for analyzing exchange rates, such as interest rate parity and purchasing power parity, are becoming ineffective due to changing market conditions [8][12]. - The shift from a focus on maximizing returns to prioritizing "survival security" among sovereign capital and long-term institutional investors has altered the risk-return profile of holding dollar assets [11][12]. Group 3: Technological and Structural Changes - The emergence of open-source AI models, such as DeepSeek, has disrupted the previous belief that the US would remain the sole leader in technological innovation, affecting the valuation of US tech stocks [16][19]. - The shift in production tools from proprietary to open-source has diminished the exclusivity of US technological advantages, impacting the dollar's strength [21][22]. Group 4: Digital Currency and Financial Systems - The introduction of digital currencies and decentralized payment systems poses a challenge to the traditional dollar-dominated financial network, potentially reducing the dollar's role in global transactions [27][28]. - The US's response to the rise of digital currencies, such as the GENIUS Act, reflects a defensive posture aimed at integrating private stablecoins into the dollar system rather than preventing competition [29][30]. Group 5: Future Outlook for the Dollar and Yuan - The dollar's cyclical patterns may shift from a "bullish long" to a "bullish short" dynamic, indicating a potential for prolonged downward pressure on the dollar [36][37]. - The yuan is increasingly seen as a global innovation currency, with its valuation becoming less dependent on US interest rates and more on technological advancements [39][40].
AI革命和数字货币，会瓦解美元霸权吗？
3 6 Ke·2026-02-13 02:34