铠侠翻身仗：打破定价枷锁，NAND价格1季度有望暴涨50%

Core Viewpoint - Kioxia, a Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer, is breaking free from a long-standing pricing dilemma that has suppressed its profitability, marking a significant turning point in the industry as it adjusts its pricing strategy in response to rising AI demand and supply constraints [1][5]. Group 1: Pricing Adjustments - Kioxia will implement a revised pricing policy starting in Q1 2026, with expected average selling prices (ASP) for major North American customers projected to increase by approximately 50% quarter-over-quarter [1][5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts an even more aggressive ASP increase of nearly 90% in Q1 2026, with adjusted gross margins reaching 66%, aligning with industry benchmarks [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Signals - The pricing changes from Kioxia signal a robust recovery for the entire NAND industry, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 70% ASP increase for Samsung and a 45% increase for SK Hynix in Q1 2026 [4][5]. - The NAND market is entering a new profit growth cycle, driven by sustained supply constraints and disciplined capital expenditures from manufacturers [4][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Kioxia anticipates a nearly 20% growth in NAND bit demand for 2026, primarily fueled by strong data center requirements, with a long-term compound annual growth rate also expected at 20% [7]. - The supply environment is expected to remain tight throughout the year, with industry players focusing on investment conversion and product mix adjustments rather than increasing capacity [7][8]. Group 4: Profitability Recovery - The NAND industry is experiencing a significant recovery in profitability, with Samsung's NAND operating margin projected to rise from 25% in Q4 2025 to 37% in Q1 2026, and SK Hynix's margin expected to increase from 30% to 42% [9]. - Kioxia's operating margin guidance ranges from 47% to 63%, with expectations for Q1 2026 NAND ASP to increase by over 40% quarter-over-quarter [9].