国金证券：黄磷供需格局有望逐步向好 硫磺价格高企或将助推景气上行

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the supply-side constraints and demand-side dynamics of yellow phosphorus, indicating potential investment opportunities in companies with significant yellow phosphorus production capacity and performance elasticity. Supply Side - Yellow phosphorus supply is concentrated in regions such as Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hubei, with a significant portion of small production capacities. By 2025, Yunnan is expected to account for 46% of the total domestic yellow phosphorus production [2] - The competitive landscape shows that production capacities below 50,000 tons account for approximately 47%, while those below 30,000 tons and 20,000 tons account for 27% and 14%, respectively [2] Policy Environment - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," policies have focused on strict control of new production capacities, elimination of outdated capacities, and energy conservation and carbon reduction. The "14th Five-Year Industrial Green Development Plan" emphasizes the need to control new capacities in industries including yellow phosphorus [3] - The "2024 Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" categorizes yellow phosphorus production units with capacities below 5,000 tons/year as obsolete, while energy consumption standards aim for 30% of yellow phosphorus production to meet benchmark efficiency levels by 2025 [3] Demand Side - The primary applications of yellow phosphorus are in thermal phosphoric acid (33%), glyphosate (27%), and trichlorophosphate (24%). The apparent consumption of yellow phosphorus has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an expected consumption of approximately 1,001,900 tons by 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [4] - Traditional sectors like glyphosate have seen stable demand, while the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, representing new energy applications, has been growing rapidly [4] Cost Dynamics - The rising price of sulfur has increased the production costs of wet-process phosphoric acid, potentially providing price support for thermal phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus. As of February 4, 2026, the domestic sulfur price reached 4,065 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 2,569 yuan/ton, or approximately 172% [5] - Since May 2025, the price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lower than that of wet-process phosphoric acid, with the price gap widening. The higher purity of thermal phosphoric acid enhances its cost-effectiveness amid rising sulfur prices [5] - SMM forecasts that sulfur supply growth will not meet demand growth in 2026, leading to sustained high prices, which could further elevate the costs of wet-process phosphoric acid and indirectly support price increases for thermal phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus [5]