3 6 Ke·2026-02-13 03:33Core Insights - The rapid increase in memory prices since Q4 2025 has significantly raised costs for smartphone manufacturers, leading to a potential retreat in the industry as companies face tough choices between raising prices or reducing specifications [1][5][8] - Counterpoint research indicates that memory prices may rise by approximately 40% before Q2 2026, further increasing material costs for manufacturers [2] - The smartphone market is experiencing a shift, with manufacturers adjusting their strategies to cope with rising costs, leading to a potential decline in overall market volume and increased competition among brands [8][10] Price Increases and Cost Management - Recent statistics show that new models from brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo have seen price increases ranging from 100 to 600 yuan compared to previous models, with mid-range models experiencing a price gap increase from 300 to between 400 and 600 yuan [3] - Memory typically accounts for 15% of a smartphone's Bill of Materials (BoM), rising to 20% in mid-range models, while most Chinese smartphone brands have hardware gross margins between 10% and 20% [4] - The price of the mainstream "12GB+256GB" memory configuration has surged by 75% over the past year, raising concerns about consumer willingness to absorb these costs [5] Market Dynamics and Manufacturer Strategies - The pressure from rising memory costs is affecting upstream suppliers, with manufacturers reluctant to pass on costs to consumers for fear of reduced sales, leading to downward adjustments in business plans for 2026 [6][7] - Manufacturers are increasingly focusing on structural adjustments to manage costs, such as changing suppliers or reducing specifications in less noticeable areas [5][7] - The competition is intensifying, with leading brands like Apple and Samsung having more leverage due to their financial stability and long-term supply agreements, while smaller brands face greater challenges [7][8] Market Outlook and Future Trends - The smartphone market in China is projected to see a slight decline in shipments, with major brands like Xiaomi and OPPO reducing their 2026 order quantities by over 20% [8][10] - The trend of "flagship-ifying" mid-range models is reversing, as manufacturers face supply pressures and must focus on high-end models and overseas markets for growth [10] - The global smartphone market is expected to enter a phase of "scale contraction and price increase," with IDC and Counterpoint predicting at least a 2% decline in global smartphone sales this year [10]