配置需求升温 债市走势偏强

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has broken through the 1.8% to 1.9% range due to pre-holiday positioning, but further declines require additional positive factors to drive the market [1][5]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's report on monetary policy execution for Q4 2025 indicates a more optimistic view on the economic fundamentals and inflation compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The central bank emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [1][3]. - The central bank is expected to utilize tools like MLF, reverse repos, and government bond transactions to achieve liquidity supply, with a general expectation of one interest rate cut within the year [1][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - January's inflation data shows a PPI increase of 0.4%, exceeding expectations, while CPI rose by only 0.2%, indicating weak consumer confidence [4]. - The expectation is for a "moderate recovery" in inflation supported by policy, although short-term inflation expectations are unlikely to be invalidated [4]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to transition from a unilateral trend to a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to multiple factors, including economic recovery, moderately loose monetary policy, and increased supply pressure in the bond market [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to the 1.8% to 1.9% range, with the central bank's bond purchase scale increasing by 50 to 100 billion yuan, reflecting its role in managing yield fluctuations [3][5]. - The yield curve is anticipated to remain steep, with the spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds maintained at a high level of 40 to 50 basis points [5].