自食其果！纽约联储报告称关税成本近九成由美国消费者和企业承担

Core Insights - The report from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that U.S. consumers and businesses bear approximately 90% of the costs associated with tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contradicting the government's claim that foreign entities would absorb these costs [1][2] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 2.6% to 13% over the past year, with U.S. entities absorbing 94% of the tariff impact from January to August, 92% from September to October, and 86% in November [1] Group 1 - Research shows that during Trump's first term, foreign exporters did not significantly lower prices, resulting in nearly 100% of tariff costs being passed on to U.S. import prices [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that foreign exporters bear about 5% of the tariff costs, while U.S. businesses absorb approximately 30%, with the remaining 70% passed on to consumers [2] - A study from the Kiel Institute indicates that the additional tariff burden is primarily shouldered by U.S. importers and consumers rather than foreign exporters [2] Group 2 - An analysis of trade data from January 2024 to November 2025 shows that for every 10 percentage point increase in tariffs, the average price of imported goods decreases by only 0.39% [4] - If a 25% tariff is imposed on a product, exporters would only reduce prices by less than 1%, leaving 24% of the tariff cost to be borne by U.S. importers and ultimately passed on to consumers [4] - Of the estimated $200 billion in tariff revenue expected by the U.S. government in 2025, only 4% would be paid by foreign exporters, with 96% covered by U.S. importers and consumers [4] Group 3 - Tariffs were a key economic policy of the Trump administration, aimed at increasing fiscal revenue and pressuring industries to return to the U.S., but the frequent policy adjustments have heightened market volatility and economic uncertainty [5] - A White House spokesperson noted that despite the significant increase in average tariff rates, inflation has cooled, and corporate profits have risen, suggesting that the administration's economic agenda is effectively lowering costs and accelerating growth [5]