中证商品期货指数1月大幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - In January, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing demand were implemented intensively, leading to significant support for market demand and a strong performance in the commodity market, as evidenced by the rise in the China Securities Commodity Futures Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index [1][5]. Index Performance Analysis - In January, the China Securities Commodity Futures Index rose by 13.57%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 13.64%, indicating a strong upward trend in the commodity indices with a volatility of 19.71% throughout the month [2]. - The commodity market's strong performance was influenced by international factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and geopolitical risks, which heightened market sentiment towards commodities [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - The implementation of a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has led to a significant improvement in the commodity market, with a broad-based increase replacing the previous differentiated performance [5]. - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has positively impacted the industrial sector [5]. Sector-Specific Analysis Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector showed a strong performance in January, with the China Securities Energy Chemical Industry Futures Index rising by 7.54%, driven by improved demand and cost support [8][10]. - The demand for energy products, such as gasoline and diesel, improved due to the implementation of domestic policies and international geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [10]. Steel Sector - The China Securities Steel Futures Index increased by 0.64%, supported by high demand and inventory reduction, with hot-rolled coil export orders rising by 12% year-on-year [12]. - The supply side faced tightening due to disruptions in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which provided additional cost support for the steel sector [12]. Construction Materials Sector - The China Securities Construction Materials Futures Index rose by 1.87%, reflecting a recovery in demand driven by accelerated infrastructure projects and supply-side adjustments [13]. - The market sentiment improved as the issuance of long-term special government bonds directed funds towards construction material projects [13]. Agricultural Products Sector - The China Securities Agricultural Products Index increased by 1.72%, with notable performance in oilseeds and soft commodities, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand [14]. - Palm oil prices rose due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, while cotton prices were supported by rising domestic purchase prices and weakening dollar index [14]. Contribution to Index Returns - The top contributors to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index in January were silver (4.09%), gold (1.47%), and crude oil (1.01%), while the only negative contributor was soda ash (-0.01%) [15][17]. - The strong performance of precious metals was attributed to increased safe-haven buying amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [17].