数据已支持加息，市场为何只死磕美联储降息？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates is influenced by both economic factors and political pressures, with a prevailing expectation of rate cuts rather than increases [1][9][13] - Economic indicators, such as employment data, show a stabilizing labor market, with job growth nearly double expectations and a low unemployment rate of 4.3%, suggesting less need for further rate cuts [5][6] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, currently about 1 percentage point higher, and has exceeded this target for five consecutive years, complicating the rationale for continued rate cuts [5][6] Group 2 - The Trump administration's fiscal stimulus and significant capital expenditures in artificial intelligence are expected to impact economic growth positively, potentially leading to a higher neutral interest rate [6][9] - There is a perception that the Fed's dovish stance is increasingly influenced by political factors rather than purely economic data, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [9][12][13] - The market is beginning to factor in political interventions when pricing interest rate changes, which creates uncertainty for investors and policymakers alike [13]