摩根大通建议抛售2年期美债 料美联储难以大幅降息

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists recommend selling 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" trade due to a robust economic growth outlook, which will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic foundation is solid, and even if Kevin Walsh is confirmed as the Federal Reserve Chair, he will face challenges in influencing the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions [1][4]. - The report was released ahead of a key U.S. inflation report that could provide new clues for the Fed's next actions [1][4]. Market Reactions - Any signs of easing price pressures could stimulate demand for short-term, policy-sensitive bonds [1][4]. - U.S. Treasury yields have been volatile this week, influenced by a tech stock sell-off and strong U.S. employment data, which has sparked discussions about how Walsh would handle policy [1][4]. Interest Rate Expectations - Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in July and to implement another cut by the end of the year [1][4]. - Prior to the release of stronger-than-expected employment data earlier this week, the market was almost certain that the Fed would cut rates in June [1][4]. - As of Friday's Asian trading session, the 2-year Treasury yield rose slightly by 2 basis points to 3.47%, following a drop of about 5 basis points the previous trading day [1][4]. Diverging Opinions - Some individuals disagree with Morgan Stanley's viewpoint, including hedge fund manager David Einhorn, who bets that Walsh's leadership will result in larger-than-expected rate cuts [5]. - Einhorn has purchased overnight secured financing rate futures, betting that if the Fed lowers borrowing costs more aggressively, the related contracts will rise [5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will "stabilize" with a rise of 0.39% in January, influenced by the easing of price pressures and the lingering effects of the government shutdown [5].