三大维度透视：中概、港科缘何走弱？

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong tech stocks faced a setback, with Alibaba down 2.33%, Tencent down 1.68%, and Baidu down over 4% [1] - The decline in Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech sector is attributed to macroeconomic factors and global liquidity tightening [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The expectation of global liquidity tightening has increased, influenced by the hawkish nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman and strong U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] - The performance of large U.S. tech stocks has been weak, with concerns over AI disruption and increased capital expenditures affecting market sentiment [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Intense competition in the AI sector has led to significant strategic investments by companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance, which are eroding short-term profits [2] - The ongoing AI arms race and competition in instant retail are forcing companies to increase operational and capital expenditures, impacting mid-term EPS growth [2] Group 4: Fundamental Performance - The cyclical business performance is subdued, with a 2.3% year-on-year growth in GMV for online physical goods in Q4 2025, indicating potential revenue pressure for e-commerce platforms [4] - The AI narrative lacks solid performance support, as increased capital expenditures have not yet translated into expected profit growth [4] Group 5: Capital Flows - Recent data shows significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, with foreign net inflows of $1.88 billion as of February 4, 2023 [5] - Southbound capital has been actively buying Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase of over 5.1 billion yuan in three days during early February [5] Group 6: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current P/E ratio of the Hong Kong tech index is 23.93, which is below the five-year average, indicating potential value for investors [7] - Analysts believe that the recent volatility in the Hong Kong tech sector is primarily due to liquidity shocks, with the fundamental investment logic remaining intact [8]