小摩：百威亚太(01876)中国业务拖累季度业绩 维持“中性”评级

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Q4 2025, which is 12% lower than market consensus, with a 4% year-on-year drop in sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser China is the main drag on performance, with sales and EBITDA declining by 11% and 42% year-on-year respectively, primarily due to increased promotional activities and significant deleveraging effects [1] - Budweiser Korea's Q4 2025 sales and EBITDA are expected to decline by 1% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, outperforming industry growth, impacted by a one-time $49 million drag from a tax dispute with the Korean government [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Budweiser China has shown signs of improvement in sales momentum starting Q4 2025, with plans to reignite growth in FY2026 by increasing investments in at-home consumption distribution capabilities [1] - The company forecasts a 3.4% and 5.4% year-on-year growth in sales and EBITDA for 2026, respectively [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - Budweiser has announced a dividend payout of $750 million for FY2025, with a payout ratio of 150% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [1] - The company is expected to maintain its current policy of sustaining or increasing the annual dividend per share, which implies a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on a current 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1]