Exness: 政策交锋中的市场，贸易摩擦、通胀偏离与利率之争

Group 1: Market Overview - The financial market in 2026 is characterized by a rare interplay of political pressure and economic adjustments, with trade rhetoric and geopolitical tensions remaining active [1] - Inflation has slowed down, prompting renewed discussions on interest rate directions globally, influenced by various macroeconomic factors rather than a single mainstream narrative [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical developments, particularly tensions surrounding Greenland and U.S. trade policies, are significantly impacting risk appetite and commodity pricing, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The Middle East's situation continues to affect energy market dynamics, with ongoing supply shock risks keeping the oil market on alert despite recent stability [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation rates have decreased from 3% to approximately 2.7% since Q4 2025, influencing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Differentiated monetary policies among central banks are shaping market behaviors, with some countries adopting easing measures while others maintain a neutral stance due to domestic growth constraints [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to easing geopolitical risks and concerns over supply surplus, with prices fluctuating within a range despite structural supply-demand imbalances [6][8] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are facing resistance near $61, with key support levels around $58, influenced by moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels [8] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been declining, influenced by positive U.S. non-farm data and the Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts, while the European Central Bank appears reluctant to lower rates further [9][11] - Current technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD is testing significant resistance levels, with potential support around $1.17, indicating a cautious trading environment [11]