Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-11 23:13Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the Hong Kong technology sector, represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index, has created a strong investment opportunity due to extreme pessimism in the market narrative [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic data indicates a slowdown in both PMI production and demand, while prices continue to strengthen; structural issues related to insufficient domestic demand persist, making the expansion of domestic demand a key policy focus [2] - PPI is expected to recover further, indicating potential positive shifts in the economic landscape [2] Liquidity and Funding - The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates in January, with the nomination of a new chair, which may influence market dynamics; both domestic and Hong Kong capital have been increasing their holdings in the Hong Kong stock market [2] Valuation - The relative valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector has reached historical lows, with the Hang Seng Tech Index/A-share dual innovation index premium nearing historical minimum levels; the current regulatory environment for internet companies is significantly better than in 2022 and 2023, suggesting that the Hong Kong tech sector is undervalued [2] - The odds and win rates for investing in Hong Kong technology appear favorable moving forward [2] Policy Environment - Strict control over IPO quality is expected to improve market sentiment, as the previous oversupply of IPOs has been a common narrative explaining the weak performance of Hong Kong stocks [2] Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors such as technology (AI and internet, high-end manufacturing), non-bank financials (insurance), and high-dividend stocks [3] - The investment paradigm is shifting from "arms race" to "profit verification," leading to value discovery for Hong Kong internet companies; the AI ecosystem in Hong Kong is becoming increasingly comprehensive, covering hardware, foundational models, and vertical applications [3] - Instant retail business losses are narrowing and are gradually being priced in by the market; the technology sector's discount is approaching historical extremes, providing a clear "high cut low" configuration advantage [3] Non-Bank Financials - The asset side is characterized by a "bull market in stocks and bear market in bonds," with a strong beta in the operating side and a favorable opening for liabilities [4] High-Dividend Strategy - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index has a dividend yield of approximately 6%, indicating stable dividend capacity; there is an increasing allocation of insurance and "fixed income+" funds from southbound capital towards high-dividend assets [4]