机构预测摩洛哥2026年宏观经济基本面保持稳定

Core Viewpoint - The report by Helios Investment Partners highlights Morocco's strong macroeconomic fundamentals compared to many regional countries, with effective inflation control and a solid economic policy framework supporting growth [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's government has set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5%, with expectations of "steady but limited" growth aligning with economic stimulus policies and fiscal reform processes [1] - Agriculture remains a significant uncertainty for overall growth due to climate factors, while non-agricultural sectors such as industry, construction, logistics, and services are expected to drive economic growth [1] Fiscal Policy and Challenges - Fiscal reform is a key factor influencing the macroeconomy, with a target budget deficit of 3% of GDP set for 2026, reflecting policy continuity [1] - Major challenges include effectively mobilizing fiscal revenue, controlling compensation and social spending, and increasing investment while ensuring debt sustainability [1] External Economic Conditions - Overall external conditions are stable, with tourism revenue and remittances continuing to buffer structural trade deficits [1] - Foreign exchange reserves can cover approximately five months of goods and services import payment needs, indicating low international balance of payments risk [1] - However, attention is needed regarding the impacts of weather changes, the European economic situation, and fluctuations in commodity prices [1]