全体注意！节前跳水，军工逆势飘红，后市锚定这两条主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced significant declines ahead of the Chinese New Year, with a prevailing risk-averse sentiment overshadowing expectations for a "red envelope market" [1]. Market Performance - A-shares saw all three major indices drop, with declines exceeding 1.2%, while the STAR 50 Index showed resilience with a smaller drop of 0.72, indicating underlying support in the tech growth sector [2]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 19,827 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1,591 billion yuan, driven by a cautious "holding cash for the New Year" mentality [3]. - The Hong Kong market faced more severe adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,535.93 points, down 1.84%, influenced by a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq [4]. Sector Performance - The market exhibited a stark divide, with the defense and military sector rising while cyclical and new energy sectors faced heavy losses [5]. - In A-shares, the comprehensive sector rose by 2.06%, and the defense and military sector increased by 0.65%, making it one of the few sectors in the green. Conversely, cyclical and new energy sectors saw significant declines, with non-ferrous metals down 3.36%, construction materials down 3.10%, and oil and petrochemicals down 3.09% [6]. Drivers of Sector Movements - The military sector's rise was supported by two main factors: improved U.S.-China relations and ongoing domestic policy support for low-altitude economy and aerospace, which bolstered investor sentiment [7]. - The downturn in cyclical and new energy sectors was attributed to a sharp decline in international commodity prices, with silver dropping over 11% and gold also experiencing significant losses, leading to a sell-off in risk assets [8]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a pattern of consolidation, with A-shares showing resilience due to policy support and liquidity. Key opportunities remain in the tech sector, particularly in AI computing, semiconductors, and robotics, as well as in military and low-altitude economy sectors driven by clear policy direction [11]. - However, cyclical sectors are likely to remain under pressure until there are signs of improvement in PPI and real estate policies, while the performance of Hong Kong tech stocks will depend on the stabilization of U.S. tech stocks [12][13].