老铺黄金股价下跌近4%，机构下调目标价引发市场担忧

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) experienced a decline of 3.97% on February 13, 2026, amid broader market corrections in the gold sector and concerns over profit quality due to expected margin declines [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 13, 2026, Lao Pu Gold closed at 738.50 HKD, with a daily trading volume of approximately 843 million HKD and a price fluctuation of 6.76% [1]. - The overall gold sector in Hong Kong saw a pullback, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) dropping over 7%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72% [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Stock Price Movement - Concerns over gross margin led to a downgrade in target price by Bank of America from 958 HKD to 860 HKD, citing a projected gross margin of 37.1% for the second half of 2025, a decrease of 4 percentage points year-on-year and 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The international gold price has also seen a downturn, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping approximately 70 HKD per gram on February 7, 2026, compounded by new regulations from Shenzhen that restrict pre-priced gold and leveraged trading [2]. Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Lao Pu Gold's sales are heavily reliant on consumer expectations of rising gold prices, with plans for three price increases in 2025. However, if gold prices decline, the brand's ability to maintain high pricing and customer loyalty may be challenged [3]. - The luxury goods market in China is expected to shrink in 2025, with consumers increasingly focused on the practicality of high-priced items, posing a risk to Lao Pu Gold's growth as it balances cultural attributes of traditional gold items with everyday wearability [3]. Group 4: Financial and Technical Analysis - On February 13, 2026, there was a net inflow of 30.51 million HKD from institutional investors, but retail investors showed a net outflow of approximately 384 million HKD, indicating selling pressure primarily from retail [4]. - Technically, the stock price fell below the 5-day moving average of 763.4 HKD, and the MACD histogram turned negative at -10.614, suggesting weak short-term momentum [4].