中钨高新股价高位震荡，多空因素交织影响市场表现

Group 1: Stock Price Movement - The stock price of Zhongtung High-tech (000657) showed high volatility in February 2026, closing at 52.41 yuan on February 13, down 5.28% for the day, with a cumulative increase of 9.35% over the past five trading days and an annual increase of 89.14% [1] - Short-term profit-taking pressure emerged as the stock price rose from 27.71 yuan at the end of 2025 to a high of 53.76 yuan in January 2026, resulting in a gain of over 72% [1] - On February 11, a net inflow of 736 million yuan led to a price surge, but the stock retreated to 52.41 yuan on February 13, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Industry Policy and Market Conditions - The high volatility in tungsten prices is supported by tightening supply, with domestic tungsten concentrate mining quotas reduced by 6.5% to 58,000 tons in 2025 and increased export controls in 2026, leading to a global supply gap of approximately 17,800 tons [2] - As of early February 2026, the price of black tungsten concentrate exceeded 650,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 40% increase since the end of 2025, although rapid price increases have raised concerns about demand slowing down [2] Group 3: Company Valuation and Performance Expectations - Optimistic forecasts suggest a year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 40%-60% for 2026, with Q1 net profit potentially surging by 465%-556% [3] - The company's resource self-sufficiency rate is expected to improve to 70% following the injection of Yuanjing Tungsten Industry, and the ramp-up of high-end products like photovoltaic tungsten wire and PCB micro-drills is anticipated to provide long-term growth momentum [3] - Current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 111.60, significantly above the industry average, with target price ranges from various institutions between 50-72 yuan, while the market's composite target price of 38.34 yuan indicates a valuation discrepancy [3] Group 4: Technical and Financial Aspects - The stock price has been oscillating between the upper Bollinger Band (55.83 yuan) and the 20-day moving average (47.27 yuan), with the KDJ indicator showing a need for correction after being overbought [4] - The financing balance increased by 5.81% over the past ten days to 2.397 billion yuan, indicating high participation from leveraged funds, although the broader sector (non-ferrous metals) experienced a 3.36% decline, exacerbating volatility [4]