摩根大通：基于美联储利率展望，建议做空两年期美债

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan strategists recommend shorting two-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" trade due to the resilient outlook for U.S. economic growth, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic fundamentals are strong, and even if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the new Fed Chair, it is unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will yield to his preferences [1][4]. - The upcoming U.S. inflation report is expected to provide new insights into the Fed's next steps, with any signs of easing price pressures potentially boosting demand for short-term, policy-sensitive Treasuries [1][4]. Market Reactions - This week, U.S. Treasury yields experienced significant volatility, influenced by a tech stock sell-off and strong U.S. employment data [1][4]. - Traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July and potentially again by the end of the year [1][4]. Yield Movements - As of Friday's Asian trading session, the two-year Treasury yield rose slightly by 2 basis points to 3.47%, following a decline of approximately 5 basis points in the previous trading day [1][4]. Diverging Opinions - Some market participants, such as hedge fund manager David Einhorn, disagree with JPMorgan's view, betting that Warsh-led Fed will implement "much more" aggressive rate cuts than currently anticipated [2][5]. - JPMorgan forecasts that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will rise by 0.39% month-over-month, which is considered a "strong" increase, while Bloomberg's economic research predicts a 0.31% rise, aligning with market consensus [2][5]. Short-Term Yield Outlook - JPMorgan strategists believe that short-term yields are unlikely to decline significantly from current levels [3][6].