美国会预算办公室预测赤字将继续扩大 专家：极不寻常

Group 1 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office predicts that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 will be approximately $1.9 trillion, increasing to $3.1 trillion by 2036, with respective GDP ratios of 5.8% and 6.7%, both exceeding the historical average of 3.8% over the past 50 years [1] - The projected deficit ratios are significantly higher than the U.S. Treasury Secretary's target of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP, indicating a deterioration in the fiscal situation amid sluggish economic growth [1] - The Director of the Congressional Budget Office, Phillip Swagel, describes the sustained large deficits as "extremely unusual" in history, with rising net interest costs being a primary driver of the deficit growth [1] Group 2 - The public-held federal debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise from 101% this year to 120% by 2036, surpassing the historical peak of 106% recorded in 1946 after World War II [1] - Government spending is projected to be significantly high by historical standards, with total expenditures expected to account for 23.3% of GDP in 2026, also exceeding the average level of the past 50 years [1] - The worsening fiscal situation is emphasized by the statement from the Bipartisan Policy Center's Economic Policy Director, Jonathan Burks, who notes that the current debt level is unprecedented for a growing economy during peacetime [2]