美股能源股开年大涨21%后，历史规律预示继续走牛！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the significant rise in oil company stocks since the beginning of the year signals a positive outlook for the oil market for the remainder of the year, with the S&P 500 Energy Index up approximately 21% year-to-date, outperforming all other sectors [1] - Historical data indicates that strong starts for energy stocks often lead to strong finishes, with previous instances showing that when the energy sector rises by 10% from the start of the year to mid-February, it typically gains at least 15% for the rest of the year [4] - Investors have shown increased interest in energy stocks, as evidenced by a record investment of $2.6 billion into the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF in January, the highest since 2008 [4] Group 2 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran, stricter sanctions on Russian exports, and risks of supply disruptions in major shipping routes have contributed to the continuous rise in oil prices [4] - DataTrek Research has noted that the energy sector has outperformed the S&P 500 index by at least 20.9 percentage points in 7 instances since 2015, with subsequent 50-day periods showing continued outperformance [4] - The energy sector's weight in the S&P 500 is slightly above 3%, providing ample room for investors to increase their allocation to this sector [4] Group 3 - The energy sector is considered a component of the S&P 500 that should never be recommended for reduction, as it often remains the only sector to rise during geopolitical or oil crises [5] - Despite the overall market decline, energy company stock prices have also experienced a downturn, indicating potential uncertainties from economic, geopolitical, and even artificial intelligence influences that could disrupt historical trends by 2026 [5]