是时候该重估零食量贩店的投资价值

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the snack retail sector, particularly the bulk snack stores represented by "Ming Ming Hen Mang," indicates a shift in consumer habits and market dynamics, positioning these stores as sustainable retail models rather than short-lived trends [2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" experienced a significant IPO, with the Hong Kong public offering oversubscribed by approximately 1,899 times, raising over 500 billion HKD in frozen funds [3] - On its first trading day, the stock opened at 445 HKD, reflecting an 88.08% increase from the issue price of 236.6 HKD, and closed at 400 HKD, a 69.06% rise [3] - As of February 3, the stock price stabilized between 405 and 408 HKD, maintaining a market capitalization of around 870 to 880 billion HKD [3] Group 2: Financial Health - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" reported revenue of 46.37 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 240.8% to 1.81 billion RMB [5] - The gross profit margin improved from approximately 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2023, while the net profit margin increased from 1.8% to 3.3% [6][7] - The company is transitioning from a "thin profit" model to a "thicker profit" approach, indicating a shift towards sustainable profitability [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bulk snack retail sector has seen explosive growth, with the number of stores reaching approximately 45,000 by the end of 2025, a significant increase from about 1,800 in 2020 [16][17] - The market size for bulk snacks is projected to exceed 140 billion RMB in GMV by 2024, with the sector's share of the overall snack retail market rising from 7.6% in 2019 to 14% in 2024 [16] - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and its competitor "Hao Xiang Lai" together hold over 70% of the market share, establishing a stable duopoly in the sector [18] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Both "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and "Hao Xiang Lai" are expanding rapidly, with "Ming Ming Hen Mang" surpassing 21,000 stores and "Hao Xiang Lai" exceeding 15,000 stores, covering extensive geographic areas [17][9] - The two companies are well-positioned to capture the growing demand in lower-tier markets, which are expected to account for a significant portion of consumer spending growth by 2030 [18] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The operational model of "Ming Ming Hen Mang" emphasizes high inventory turnover and cost control through a flexible supply chain, which has led to improved gross margins [8] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network and enhancing its product offerings to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in lower-tier markets [8][27]