Moderna Just Crushed Estimates While Everyone Was Looking the Other Way

Core Insights - Moderna reported Q4 revenue of $678 million, surpassing estimates of $663 million, while total sales fell 29% year-over-year due to declining COVID vaccine demand [1] - The company significantly reduced annual operating expenses by $2.2 billion, exceeding cost-reduction targets, and narrowed its quarterly loss by 26% year-over-year [1] - The FDA declined to review Moderna's flu vaccine application, delaying diversification efforts beyond COVID vaccines, which negatively impacted share prices [1] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue was $678 million, compared to a loss of $2.11 per share, better than the expected loss of $2.64 [1] - Full-year 2025 revenue was $1.94 billion, down 40% from $3.24 billion in 2024, with a reduced net loss of $2.82 billion from $3.56 billion [1] - The company held $8.1 billion in cash and investments at year-end 2025, after drawing $600 million from its credit facility [2] Cost Management - R&D spending in Q4 decreased by 31% to $775 million as the company wound down Phase 3 respiratory programs [1] - The operational efficiency achieved through cost discipline is highlighted as a significant achievement for the quarter [1] Market Dynamics - International product sales reached $381 million, surpassing U.S. sales of $264 million, indicating a strategic shift towards markets with better vaccine adoption [1] - The company secured international partnerships, including a five-year agreement with Mexico for up to 10 million COVID-19 vaccine doses [1] Regulatory Challenges - The FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter for Moderna's flu vaccine, delaying its U.S. market entry but maintaining potential revenue from international markets [1] - Despite the setback, the company maintains that it will not impact its 2026 financial guidance [1] Future Outlook - Management projects revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, estimating approximately $2.13 billion in sales with a balanced split between U.S. and international markets [1] - The company is advancing multiple oncology programs and rare disease therapeutics, with significant data readouts expected in 2026 [2] Valuation Considerations - Moderna's market capitalization stands at $15.67 billion, trading at 7x trailing sales despite ongoing losses [2] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $38.40, with mixed ratings reflecting the company's transition challenges [2]