益生股份2025年业绩下滑，但四季度改善，2026年行业供需趋紧或迎增长

Performance Overview - In the 2025 performance forecast, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 150 million to 190 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 62.29% to 70.23%. However, the fourth quarter shows significant improvement with a net profit of 118 million to 158 million yuan. The company attributes the performance fluctuation mainly to the industry cycle in the first half of the year, while 2026 is anticipated to bring multiple growth opportunities driven by the gap in grandparent breeding stock, expansion of production capacity, and growth in the breeding pig business [1] Industry Conditions - Due to the impact of avian influenza overseas, the introduction volume of grandparent white feather broiler breeding stock in 2025 decreased by over 10% year-on-year, totaling only 620,000 sets, leading to a tight supply. The price of parent stock chick has been rising since September 2025, with the transaction price exceeding 53 yuan/set in January 2026, and further price increases are expected, benefiting the company's core business [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its production capacity over the next four years, increasing the parent stock inventory from 7 million sets to 10 million sets and the production capacity of commercial chicks from 600 million to 1 billion birds. This will be achieved through both self-construction and acquisitions to solidify its leading position in the industry [3] Business Development - The company has made progress in new business areas, with the research and development of new egg-laying chicken strains passing the pilot test, expected to receive certification in the first half of 2026, thereby enriching its product matrix. Additionally, the overseas strategy is advancing steadily, with agricultural and animal husbandry equipment already exported to Southeast Asia, and negotiations for the export of hatching eggs are underway to expand into international markets [4] Subsidiary Growth - As a core breeding farm for national pig breeding, the company's pig sales reached 98,400 heads in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 228.43%. The target for 2026 is to achieve sales of 150,000 heads, gradually contributing to sustainable revenue [5]