近5年新低！美国核心CPI年率低于预期，6月前降息概率已升至80%

Group 1 - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a further slowdown in inflation growth, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path [1] - In January, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate recorded 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since May of the previous year [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.5%, matching expectations and indicating the slowest growth since March 2021 [1][3] Group 2 - The decline in inflation is primarily attributed to a significant drop in energy prices, with the energy index falling by 1.5% in January, and gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%, alleviating upward pressure on overall inflation data [3] - Housing costs remain a major contributor to inflation, increasing by 0.2% in January, but this increase is relatively mild compared to previous years, providing strong support for the inflation outlook [3] - Current CPI levels suggest that the Federal Reserve is nearing its 2% inflation target, although the market may not price in an earlier rate cut, a slight reduction in terminal rates is deemed reasonable based on current data [3]