ASML Climbs 11% in a Month: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - ASML Holding (ASML) shares have increased by 11.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which declined by 3.4% [1][7] - ASML's stock is currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.66X compared to the sector average of 6.37X, as indicated by a Zacks Value Score of F [2] Performance Comparison - In the same period, shares of Lam Research, KLA Corporation, and Applied Materials returned 10.8%, 1.1%, and 19.1%, respectively [2] - ASML's stock has outperformed Lam Research and KLA Corporation but underperformed Applied Materials [1][2] Demand and Growth Outlook - ASML is benefiting from strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) chips, particularly in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM nodes, which is expected to tighten supply through at least 2026 [5][9][10] - The company has a backlog of €38.8 billion and expects revenues in the range of €34-€39 billion for 2026, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $43.31 billion, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 17% [10][11] Competitive Position - ASML holds a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, which is essential for producing the world's most advanced chips at 3nm and below, providing it with significant pricing power and strategic importance with major customers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [12] - The company is advancing into sub-2nm production with High Numerical Aperture (High-NA) EUV systems, which are expected to be central to the industry's shift towards denser and more efficient chips [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASML's 2026 earnings is $33.63, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.3%, with recent upward revisions in estimates [13][14] - Current earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters and years indicate stable growth, with the current quarter estimate at $7.61 and the next year at $41.42 [14] Investment Recommendation - Given ASML's unmatched leadership in EUV technology, visibility into AI-driven demand, and strong earnings momentum, the stock is viewed as attractive for long-term investment, currently rated as Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [10][13]