Marathon(US:MPC) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-02-13 16:44Core Viewpoint - Marathon Oil reported Q4 2026 earnings that exceeded market expectations in both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, leading to a rise in stock price during pre-market trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2026, Marathon Oil's revenue was $33.422 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $31.981 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $4.07, significantly higher than the analyst forecast of $2.90 [2]. - The company outlined a capital allocation plan for 2026, with a total investment of $1.5 billion, of which $1.41 billion is allocated to refining and marketing [2]. Stock Performance - Over the past week (February 7 to 13, 2026), Marathon Oil's stock exhibited volatility, with a notable drop of 5.09% on February 12, closing at $198.02, followed by a rebound to $201.34 on February 13, marking a 1.68% increase [3]. - The stock reached a high of $210.32 and a low of $195.75 during this period, with a total fluctuation of 7.18%; year-to-date, the stock has risen by 23.80%, outperforming the overall oil and gas sector [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Recent ratings for Marathon Oil have been positive, with Goldman Sachs raising the target price to $211 while maintaining a "Buy" rating; Wells Fargo increased its target to $217, and BMO Capital Markets raised its target from $200 to $225, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - Citigroup adjusted its target price from $182 to $210, keeping a "Hold" rating; Goldman Sachs noted that Marathon Oil is viewed as a "crowded long" position, reflecting optimism about its cyclical recovery potential [4]. Recent Developments - On February 4, 2026, the company announced the purchase of two tankers of Venezuelan crude oil, aiming to process more heavy crude, which may increase demand and impact the supply chain [5]. - In the external environment, OPEC+ is considering a production increase in April, and geopolitical factors (such as US-Iran negotiations and production recovery post-cold snap) are supporting oil price volatility; Morgan Stanley and Barclays have recently raised their oil price forecasts to above $70, emphasizing geopolitical risk premiums and demand resilience [5].