泰财政政策办公室将2025年GDP增长预期下调至2.2%

Economic Growth Outlook - The Thai Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has revised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.2%, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2% [1] - The downward adjustment for 2025 is attributed to a lower-than-expected economic growth rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, significantly impacted by refinery shutdowns in October and November [1] - A rebound in economic growth is observed in the fourth quarter, with an increase of 1.8%, driven by consumer stimulus measures [1] Tourism and Private Investment - By 2026, GDP growth is expected to benefit primarily from the tourism sector, with foreign tourist arrivals projected to reach 35.5 million, a 7% increase from 32.9 million in the previous year [1] - Private investment is anticipated to grow by 3.2% this year, up from 2.9% in the same period last year, supported by projects approved by the investment committee [1] Inflation and Currency Exchange Rate - The overall inflation rate for 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.1%, followed by a rise of 0.3% in the subsequent year, remaining below the central bank's target range of 1%-3% [1] - The average exchange rate for 2026 is projected at 35.5 Thai Baht per US dollar, while the average for 2025 is estimated at 32.9 Thai Baht per US dollar [2]