华尔街怎么看1月CPI？通胀担忧暂歇，今年三次降息几率升至五成

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation data showed a mild increase, with the core CPI year-on-year growth falling to its lowest level in nearly five years, indicating a continued easing of price pressures. This unexpected inflation cooling has boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with traders raising the probability of three rate cuts to 50% [1][3]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the January CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since May of the previous year, down from 2.7% in December and below the market expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth since March 2021 [1][3]. - The January CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, the smallest increase since July of the previous year, and below the expected 0.3%. The overall energy index fell by 1.5%, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.2% [4][6]. - The core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations but higher than December's 0.2%. The super core CPI, excluding housing, rose by 0.56% month-on-month, the largest increase since January of the previous year, but the year-on-year growth slowed to 2.67%, the lowest since March 2021 [4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock futures rose, U.S. Treasury prices increased, and the dollar fell. The two-year Treasury yield dropped by 6 basis points to 3.40%, the lowest level in nearly two months [3][8]. - Traders adjusted their expectations for the total rate cut this year from 58 basis points to 63 basis points, indicating a 50% chance of three rate cuts by the end of the year. The probability of a rate cut in April is estimated at 30%, while the probability for June exceeds 80% [3][8]. Economic Analysis - Analysts noted that the lower overall price increases are a positive signal for the economy, despite some categories still showing inflationary pressures. The latest annual data benefited from the base effect of high inflation data from January 2025 dropping out of the calculation [7][9]. - The trend of easing inflation is expected to continue, with strong deflationary forces observed in categories such as automobiles, food, and energy. Overall, it is anticipated that deflationary pressures will dominate in the coming months [7][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts from various financial institutions expressed that the path for the Federal Reserve to normalize interest rates appears clearer, with expectations for two rate cuts this year, the next likely in June [7][9]. - The market is pricing in a lower terminal rate, with expectations that CPI will peak mid-year and then decline, aligning with predictions for the Fed to begin cutting rates around June or July [8][9].