去年国债期货市场成交额增加43．9％

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reports significant growth in the bond futures market and overall bond financing for 2025, indicating a robust outlook for the debt market in China [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is projected to reach 97.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is expected to be 64.8 million contracts, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Financing - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is projected to be 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the total custody balance in the bond market is forecasted to be 196.7 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]