Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending have led to significant stock declines among major tech companies, particularly Amazon, which is facing fears of becoming the first cloud giant with negative free cash flow by 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since 2006 and entering a technical bear market with a drop of over 20% from its peak [3]. - As of the latest close, Amazon's stock price has decreased nearly 23% from its historical closing price of $254 on November 3, now trading below $200 [3]. - Microsoft also entered a bear market earlier this year, with its stock down over 25% from its historical closing price of $542.07 on October 28 [3]. Group 2: AI Investment Plans - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in AI capital expenditures by 2026, the highest among the four major cloud service providers, contributing to a total expected AI capital expenditure of $650 billion across Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google [3]. - Despite a strong 24% growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) for the fourth quarter, investor skepticism remains regarding the alignment of Amazon's AI strategy with its cloud business growth [3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe the market's negative sentiment towards Amazon's AI investments is overblown, arguing that the company is strategically investing in future cloud computing capabilities [4]. - Deutsche Bank analyst Lee Horowitz suggests that the risk of underinvestment is greater than that of overinvestment for Amazon, and he has set a target price of $290 for Amazon's stock [4]. - William Blair analyst Dylan Carden acknowledges the risks associated with increased capital spending but sees it as a sign of Amazon's competitive advantage in rapidly scaling its AWS infrastructure [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in tech stocks reflects a growing divide among the "Seven Giants," with concerns about AI spending impacting companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta more severely than others like Google [5][6]. - Google has managed to avoid the worst of the sell-off due to its vertically integrated technology system, which provides a buffer against excessive spending concerns [6]. - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report on February 25 is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the AI sector, potentially revealing whether the AI boom is cooling off [7].
继微软后 亚马逊成第二家跌入熊市的“七巨头” 下一个或是这家