本文源自：金融界AI电报 美股1月收官，道指累涨1.73%，纳指累涨0.95%，标普500指数累涨1.37%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数累涨 2.69%。其中，道指录得月线9连涨，续刷历史新高。 热门股中，1月份，Salesforce跌19.86%，Adobe跌 16.21%，甲骨文跌15.34%，高通跌11.38%，微软跌11.03%，奈飞跌10.95%，苹果跌4.55%，伯克希尔B 跌4.4%，特斯拉跌4.29%，博通跌4.28%；AMD涨10.54%，台积电累涨8.78%，Meta涨8.55%，谷歌A涨 7.99%，亚马逊涨3.67%，英伟达涨2.48%。 目前，美股总市值排名前十的个股分别为英伟达、苹果、谷 歌C、谷歌A、微软、亚马逊、META、台积电、博通及特斯拉。 ...

Group 1 - The first "bomb" in the commodity market saw a dramatic drop in precious and non-ferrous metal prices, with silver experiencing a price swing of 12% in a single day, indicating a rapid exit of profit-seeking funds [3][4] - Multiple gold-related companies in the A-share market issued warnings about stock price volatility in relation to gold prices, suggesting regulatory guidance aimed at cooling overheated speculation in non-ferrous metals [3][4] - The second "bomb" came from the U.S. stock market, where Microsoft reported strong earnings but faced a sell-off due to concerns over slowing revenue growth in its Azure cloud service and high capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, leading to a 12% drop in its stock price [4][5] Group 2 - Meta's earnings report exceeded expectations, driven by strong advertising performance, resulting in a 9% increase in its stock price, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards companies that can demonstrate AI's direct impact on profitability [5] - In the domestic market, the dye industry is experiencing a price increase, with disperse dye prices rising to 19 yuan per kilogram and reactive dye prices to 23 yuan per kilogram, indicating a potential turning point for the industry's fundamentals [7] - The commercial aerospace sector is set for significant growth, with projections estimating the market size to reach 2.5 to 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 and potentially 8 to 10 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in technology and government support [8] Group 3 - In the AI application sector, there are numerous developments, including the release of new AI models and significant funding negotiations for OpenAI, indicating a strong long-term investment outlook for AI [9] - Trading data from January 29 shows a divergence between retail and institutional investors, with retail investors heavily buying into AI application stocks while institutions were reducing their positions in precious and non-ferrous metals [10] - Institutions are reallocating funds from overbought metal sectors to the chemical sector, particularly dye companies, suggesting a strategic shift in investment focus [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a significant drop of approximately 10% in its stock price following the announcement of its second-quarter earnings, despite exceeding expectations in earnings per share and revenue. The decline was attributed to slowing growth in Azure, a 66% increase in capital expenditures to $37.5 billion, and 45% of its $625 billion backlog being related to OpenAI [1][2]. Group 1 - Microsoft reported second-quarter earnings per share and revenue that surpassed expectations [1][2] - The stock price fell about 10% due to concerns over Azure's growth slowdown [1][2] - Capital expenditures surged by 66% to $37.5 billion [1][2] - 45% of the $625 billion commercial backlog is associated with OpenAI [1][2]

微软股价遭遇2020年以来最大单日跌幅之际，摩根士丹利坚定站在买方阵营。尽管Azure增速未达市场预期引发抛售，但大摩认为，投资者过度聚 焦单一指标而忽略了更宏观的增长图景：一家营收超2400亿美元的巨头实现15%的恒定货币增长，营业利润率扩张160个基点至47%，EPS增长 21%，且39%的cRPO（剩余合同金额）同比增长预示着更强劲的未来。 微软周三公布的2026财年第二财季业绩显示，Azure恒定货币增速为38%，仅比公司指引高出1个百分点，低于投资者预期的2-3个百分点超预期幅 度。这一结果令市场失望，微软股价盘中一度暴跌超12%，最终收跌9.99%至433.50美元，创下2020年3月以来最大收盘跌幅。 然而摩根士丹利维持微软"增持"评级和650美元目标价不变。据追风交易台消息，大摩分析师Keith Weiss在29日的报告中指出，微软商业合同剩余 履约义务(cRPO)同比增长39%，总商业RPO达到6250亿美元、同比增长110%，即便剔除OpenAI大额合同，RPO仍增长28%，显示出广泛的商业 需求强度。CFO Amy Hood在财报电话会议中强调："客户需求持续超过我们的供应能力。" 大摩 ...

Kumar称，沃什不太可能寻求超出经济基本面所暗示的激进降息。受美伊紧张局势影响，风险偏好也受 到打压。伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)的数据显示，比特币下跌2.2%，至82,585美元，此前隔夜曾触及 81,103美元的低点。以太币下跌3.2%，至2,727美元，此前隔夜曾触及2,696美元的两个月低点。 责任编辑：山上 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 1月30日，在微软令人失望的业绩引发科技股更广泛抛售之际，比特币在隔夜触及两个月低点后继续承 压。Jefferies经济学家Mohit Kumar在一份报告中称："我们不属于AI泡沫阵营，但我们确实认为，市场 将质疑科技公司的资本支出回报。"与此同时，有报道称美国总统特朗普可能提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)担任美联储主席。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Windows 11 is facing significant challenges, including performance issues, program vulnerabilities, and user dissatisfaction, prompting Microsoft to take urgent action to address these problems [1][2] Group 1: Current Issues - Windows 11 has been criticized for numerous program vulnerabilities and performance problems, which are eroding the core user experience [1] - Users are frustrated with forced pop-up notifications, advertising, and pre-installed bloatware, contributing to a decline in trust [1] - The initial system requirements set by Microsoft for Windows 11 have disappointed loyal users [1] Group 2: Company's Response - Microsoft plans to initiate a concentrated effort to fix the core issues of Windows 11 in the coming months [1] - The company is reallocating engineers to urgently address performance and reliability gaps in the system [1] - Microsoft aims to enhance system performance and reliability based on feedback from the user community [2] Group 3: Planned Improvements - Upcoming optimizations will focus on basic functionality improvements, such as fixing the dark mode issue and modernizing neglected system modules from the past decade [2] - The Windows and Devices division president emphasized the need to prioritize user needs in the optimization process [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are negotiating to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, which would be the largest single funding round in the AI sector to date [1][4] Group 2 - Nvidia plans to lead the investment with $30 billion, as it is a key chip supplier for OpenAI, providing GPUs for training models like ChatGPT [4] - Microsoft, as OpenAI's largest strategic partner and cloud service provider, intends to invest less than $10 billion, continuing its support since 2019 while avoiding excessive dilution of its equity [4] - Amazon is looking to invest over $10 billion, potentially exceeding $20 billion, marking its first direct investment in OpenAI, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its AI ecosystem against Microsoft Azure [4] Group 3 - The funding round is perceived as a response to competitive pressures, especially after Anthropic raised $7.3 billion and other tech giants like Google and Meta accelerated their AI investments [4] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman has indicated that future funding needs could reach trillions of dollars to achieve the goal of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), making this financing round just the first step in a long-term plan [4]

28 January 2026 | 11:02PM EST Equity Research Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Trading off short-term Azure growth ultimately drives more strategic AI positioning long term MSFT 12m Price Target: $600.00 Price: $481.63 Upside: 24.6% Selina Zhang +1(212)357-9979 | selina.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $3.6tr Enterprise value: $3.5tr 3m ADTV: $12.3bn United States Americas Software M&A Rank: 3 | GS Forecast __________________________________ | | | | | | - ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - **Focus**: Cloud and PC Semiconductors - **Key Trends**: AI investments are a primary focus for hyperscalers in 2026, with memory pricing affecting capital expenditure (capex) and the overall PC and enterprise server market. Preference is given to cloud semiconductor companies over PC semiconductor companies [1][3]. Key Company Insights Meta (META.O) - **4Q25CY Capex**: US$22.1 billion, representing a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) and a 48% increase year-over-year (Y/Y) [7]. - **2026 Capex Guidance**: Expected to be between US$115-135 billion, a 74% increase Y/Y at the mid-point, driven by investments in superintelligence labs and core business infrastructure [7]. - **AI Focus**: Continues to prioritize AI and collaborates with key partners while advancing its silicon program to diversify chip supply and enhance infrastructure flexibility [7]. Microsoft (MSFT.O) - **F2Q26 Capex**: Reported at US$37.5 billion, a 7.4% increase Q/Q and a 66% increase Y/Y, with two-thirds allocated to short-lived assets focusing on GPUs and CPUs [7]. - **Future Capex Expectations**: Anticipates a sequential decrease in capital expenditure due to normal variability from cloud infrastructure buildouts and timing of finance lease deliveries [7]. - **New Products**: Introduced the Maia 200 GPU and Cobalt 200 CPU, aimed at avoiding reliance on a single source for chip supply [7]. - **Impact of Memory Pricing**: Increasing memory prices are expected to affect capex and create volatility in on-premises server business transactions, with a negative outlook for the PC market [7]. Investment Outlook - **Cloud Semiconductor Providers**: Positive sentiment towards cloud semiconductor companies like Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) due to ongoing investments in 2026 [3]. - **PC Market Caution**: A cautious view on PC semiconductors, particularly in the second half of 2026, due to rising memory prices impacting the market [3]. Valuation Methodology and Risks - **Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)**: Valuation based on a residual income model with key assumptions including a cost of equity of 9.8%, medium-term growth rate of 18.5%, and terminal growth rate of 5.2% [9]. - **Risks**: Upside risks include stronger cloud demand and faster-than-expected specification migration, while downside risks involve softening cloud demand and intensified competition [9]. Additional Insights - **Industry View**: The overall industry view is considered attractive, indicating potential for growth and investment opportunities [5]. - **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team of analysts including Daniel Yen, Charlie Chan, Daisy Dai, and Tiffany Yeh, who have certified their views on the companies discussed [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the semiconductor industry, particularly the cloud and PC segments, and highlights the strategic directions of major players like Meta and Microsoft.

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].