CA Markets：降息预期升温施压，美元指数微跌收窄，短期震荡难改

Core Viewpoint - The slight decline of the US dollar index on February 14, 2026, reflects a combination of factors including easing inflation data, rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][6][16]. Market Overview - On February 14, the US dollar index opened at 96.935, peaked at 96.985, and fell to a low of 96.871, closing at 96.922, down 0.01% [4][5]. - Trading volume was approximately 28,000 contracts, showing a slight decrease from the previous day, while open interest remained around 33,000 contracts, indicating cautious positioning by institutional investors [4][5]. Core Drivers - The primary driver for the dollar index's decline is the easing inflation data in the US, which has led to increased expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10]. - The market anticipates that the core PCE price index for January will fall to 2.8%, close to the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the belief in a downward trend in inflation [6][7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is estimated at 19.6%, increasing to 49.3% by June, which diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [7][8]. Additional Pressures - Global monetary policy easing and the trend of de-dollarization are also contributing to the pressure on the dollar index [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to sanctions against Russia, have heightened market volatility and reduced the dollar's traditional safe-haven appeal [12][13]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions predict that the dollar index will continue to experience a range-bound movement, with a trading range of 96.5 to 97.5, as the market grapples with conflicting signals from Fed officials and economic resilience [13][14]. - Analysts suggest that while the dollar's long-term weakness is evident, short-term fluctuations may occur based on inflation data and Fed communications [16][18].