【招银研究|宏观专题】回归“小央行”：美联储“沃什时代”前瞻

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, aiming to balance various interests and potentially replace Jerome Powell on May 16, 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Warsh was chosen over other candidates due to his ability to unify different factions within the Republican Party and his strong connections with CEOs, financial giants, and politicians [1][7]. - Other candidates included Kevin Hassett, Rick Rieder, and Christopher Waller, each facing significant disadvantages compared to Warsh [4][8]. Group 2: Policy Philosophy - Warsh emphasizes that controlling inflation is the core mission of the Federal Reserve, advocating for balance sheet reduction and normalization of monetary policy [1][10]. - He believes that AI will drive the U.S. economy towards a "Goldilocks" scenario of high growth and low inflation, creating room for interest rate cuts [1][18]. - Warsh supports deregulation of U.S. commercial banks and aims to collaborate with regulatory vice-chair Bowman to advance this agenda [1][27]. Group 3: Long-term Policy Goals - Warsh's long-term strategy focuses on reviving monetarism, with deregulation and balance sheet reduction as core components [2][32]. - He may work with Treasury Secretary Bessent to implement "small central bank + small fiscal" reforms, aiming to achieve "growth with balance sheet reduction" [2][42]. Group 4: Market Implications - The global market may experience increased volatility, with U.S. stocks expected to trend upward but face a bumpy path [2][47]. - The U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline moderately, with recommendations to focus on 2-5 year maturity bonds [2][56]. - The dollar is expected to initially weaken before strengthening, while the yuan is projected to appreciate moderately [2][62]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 cuts of 25 basis points each, potentially lowering the policy rate to 2.75-3.0% [1][36]. - Warsh's influence on short-term policy may be limited, but the dovish stance is expected to prevail [32][34].