房价数据有所改善，楼市能否迎来拐点，取决于政府角色转换

Group 1 - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,900 yuan per square meter in January 2026, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, with the decline narrowing by 0.12 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - In January 2026, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 13 key cities nationwide was approximately 8.1 million square meters, representing a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 33%, with an average monthly growth of 18% compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - In January, Beijing's second-hand housing contract signing exceeded 15,000 units, remaining above the market balance line for three consecutive months [3] - Shanghai recorded 22,800 second-hand housing transactions (including commercial properties) in January, marking the third consecutive month of over 22,000 transactions, the highest for the same period in nearly five years [3] - Guangzhou's second-hand residential contract signing reached 8,881 units in January, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1.07% [3] - Shenzhen recorded 6,802 second-hand housing transactions in January, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 45.5%, reaching a ten-month high [3] Group 3 - The current data suggests a potential stabilization in housing prices, which is seen as beneficial for the government, developers, banks, and residents, as excessive price declines could lead to negative economic impacts [3] - The market's recovery hinges on restoring confidence among buyers, government, developers, and banks, with a focus on balancing interests rather than merely promoting sales [5][10] - The government is criticized for not effectively fulfilling its role as a regulator and instead acting as a participant in the market, which has contributed to current market instability [5][6] Group 4 - Developers' confidence remains low due to tight cash flow, poor sales, and ongoing price declines, indicating a lack of proactive measures to address challenges [6] - Banks are also seen as lacking confidence, waiting for government support, and have been criticized for prioritizing short-term profits over long-term market stability [8] - In contrast, residents' confidence in purchasing has shown signs of recovery, attributed to their experiences in the volatile market, leading to more cautious decision-making [8][10]