IC外汇平台：美国1月通胀放缓但仍高于2% 市场下调短期降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for substantial progress in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% target before considering any rate reductions [1][3]. Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, and below the market expectation of 2.5% [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, matching market expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2021 [3]. Economic Environment - Goolsbee indicated that while the January inflation report showed positive signs, there are still significant concerns, particularly regarding service sector inflation, which remains persistent and is not driven by tariffs [3]. - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation has been previously noted, with various industries experiencing price increases, but it remains uncertain if the peak effect has passed [3]. Interest Rate Outlook - Goolsbee suggested that there is still room for further rate cuts before reaching the neutral interest rate level, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [4]. - The market's expectations diverge from Goolsbee's cautious outlook, with traders increasing bets that the Fed may complete more than two rate cuts by 2026 [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is only 9.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 90.2% [4].