SIRIO(SZ:300791) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-14 06:07Core Viewpoint - Xianle Health has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but is facing significant challenges due to the divestment of its personal care business, leading to a projected decline in net profit for 2025 by 53% to 69% compared to 2024 [2][3][14]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for Xianle Health in 2025 is estimated to be between 101 million and 151 million RMB, a significant drop from 325 million RMB in 2024, indicating a year-on-year decline of 53% to 69% [3][14]. - The non-recurring net profit is expected to fall by over 70%, with estimates ranging from 57.5 million to 85.9 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 74% to 82% [3][14]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.58 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected increase to 4.21 billion RMB in 2024, but a decrease to 3.29 billion RMB in 2025 [4][16]. Business Model and Market Position - Xianle Health operates primarily in the B2B sector, providing comprehensive solutions for global nutrition and health brands, with a focus on soft capsules and gummies as its core high-growth products [2][14]. - The company ranks third in the global nutrition and health food CDMO market and first in the Chinese market based on 2024 revenue [2][14]. Market Trends - There is a notable shift in Xianle Health's business dynamics, with domestic revenue declining while overseas revenue is increasing. In 2024, overseas revenue reached 2.27 billion RMB, a 44.3% increase, accounting for 53.92% of total revenue [5][17]. - Domestic revenue decreased from 2.01 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.94 billion RMB in 2024, a decline of 8.3%, with further decline expected in 2025 [5][17]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a transformation, including the divestment of its personal care business and the establishment of a new production base in Thailand [8][20]. - Xianle Health has launched an equity incentive plan, setting ambitious profit targets for 2026 and 2027, aiming for a net profit of no less than 380 million RMB in 2026 and 450 million RMB in 2027 [21][22]. Risks and Challenges - The reliance on foreign currency transactions poses a risk, as fluctuations in exchange rates could significantly impact profits, with financial costs projected to reach 80 million RMB in 2024 [21]. - The company’s core products are dependent on raw materials like gelatin and fish oil, making it vulnerable to price increases, especially as new consumer clients gain bargaining power [21].