中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成:宏观调控精准施策 护航经济高质量发展

Core Insights - The current economic environment is characterized by a transition period, with a stable economic foundation but challenges in domestic demand, real estate adjustments, and bank net interest margins [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for policy support and reform innovation to unlock economic potential [1] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination - The view that "reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is preferable to cutting interest rates" is based on the current low net interest margins of commercial banks, which do not support significant interest rate cuts [3][4] - The "gradual RRR and interest rate reduction cycle" suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy, allowing for time lags in its effects on the real economy [4] - China's monetary policy framework differs from Western countries, focusing on RRR adjustments rather than interest rate changes, with a current average RRR of about 6.3% [5] Government Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has begun using government bond transactions as a new liquidity adjustment tool, with operations in 2024 and 2025 differing in market conditions [6][7] - The bond market has seen a decline in yields due to increased supply and market conditions, with the PBOC potentially implementing "buy long, sell short" operations to support fiscal policy [7] Real Estate Market Stabilization - Policies to stabilize the real estate market have been implemented, resulting in a narrowing decline in key indicators such as new housing sales, which fell by 8.7% in 2025, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from 2024 [8][9] - Key measures to stabilize expectations include improving liquidity in the real estate market and enhancing the quality of housing supply [9] Investment in Human Capital - The shift from "investment in material" to "investment in people" is crucial for economic growth, emphasizing the need for increased public spending on education, healthcare, and social services [10][11] - The government aims to enhance income distribution and support consumption through targeted fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing disposable income for low- and middle-income households [12][13] Consumer Demand Activation - Short-term fiscal transfers, such as consumption vouchers and targeted subsidies, are seen as effective measures to boost consumer spending [13][14] - Long-term strategies include tax reforms and increased government spending in the service sectors, particularly in elder care and childcare, to stimulate demand [15][16][17]