国际货币基金组织预测摩洛哥2026年经济增长4.9%

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects strong economic growth for Morocco in 2025, driven by robust performance in agriculture, construction, and services, despite external uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is expected to grow significantly in 2025, supported by ample rainfall and increasing investments in agriculture and economic development [1] - The growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2026 [1] Inflation - The overall inflation rate in Morocco is projected to be controlled at 0.8% in 2025, aided by lower food inflation [1] - The IMF forecasts that inflation will gradually rise to around 2% by mid-2027 as economic momentum strengthens and previous interest rate cuts take effect [1] Monetary Policy - The current robust monetary policy in Morocco remains applicable, with encouragement for banks to transition towards greater flexibility in exchange rate policies to better manage inflation [1] External Economic Factors - The current account deficit is expected to widen slightly due to increased imports driven by public investment, although growth in tourism revenue and foreign direct investment will provide a buffer [1] - Morocco's foreign exchange reserves are currently adequate, but caution is advised regarding potential impacts from economic slowdowns in the Eurozone and fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Fiscal Performance - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has reached 24.6% due to tax reforms and improved tax management [1] - The fiscal deficit has narrowed to 3.5%, better than the previously anticipated 3.8% [1] - The IMF recommends increasing investments in human capital in the health and education sectors [1]