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Group 1 - In January 2026, Russia's energy revenue dropped by half compared to the same period last year, decreasing by 3960 billion rubles (-50.2%), marking the lowest level since July 2020 [1] - In January, Russia's oil and gas revenue was 3933 billion rubles (51 billion USD), down from 4478 billion rubles (58.1 billion USD) in December [3] - In 2025, revenue from oil and gas in the Russian federal budget fell by 24% to 8.48 trillion rubles, the lowest level since 2020 [4] Group 2 - The Central Bank of Russia has officially lowered the oil price forecast for 2026 to 45 USD per barrel, which is 14 USD lower than the budget balance price of 59 USD and a further reduction of 10 USD from the October forecast [4] - The decline in Russia's oil budget began after sanctions were imposed on major Russian oil companies by Trump in October last year, which pressured India to reduce its purchases [4] - The price of Urals crude oil has significantly dropped, with prices recorded at 53.7 USD in October, 44.9 USD in November, and 39.2 USD in December, with a slight recovery to 41 USD in January, still far below the fiscal safety line [4] Group 3 - To sell oil, Russian oil companies are forced to offer significant discounts, barely covering costs, with estimates indicating that at a price of 45 USD, Russia's oil and gas revenue will decrease by 2.8 trillion rubles; if the January price of 41 USD is maintained, the deficit could expand to 4.3 trillion rubles, potentially leading to an overall deficit of 8 trillion rubles [5] - The combination of increased war expenditures and dwindling financial resources presents a rare challenge for Russia's wartime finances, which have not faced such a situation during Biden's administration [6] - The current state of Russia's oil revenue is comparable to levels seen during the pandemic in 2020, a period marked by low oil prices and significant economic challenges [6] Group 4 - Trump's administration has significantly impacted Russia's energy revenue, leading to a situation where Russia is unable to generate sufficient funds from energy sales to support its expansionist ambitions [9] - Under Biden's administration, Russia has benefited from high energy prices, with the U.S. and its allies inadvertently providing Russia with ample market space to earn significant revenue from energy sales [11] - The underlying logic of the Ukraine-Russia war suggests that while Putin has ambitions, the West has allowed Russia to profit from energy sales, which in turn funds its military actions [11]