华尔街大胆预测：为对冲劳动力缺口，沃什或容忍2.5%-3.5%的通胀！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework may undergo a significant shift, with a potential tolerance for inflation rates rising to the 2.5% to 3.5% range under the leadership of Chairman Waller to support a higher operating temperature for the U.S. economy [1][4] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has reached a rare equilibrium, with both labor demand and supply at 172 million people, and job vacancies and non-temporary unemployment stable at 6.6 million [1] - This equilibrium is significant as it marks a fundamental shift in economic logic, transitioning from a demand-deficient state pre-pandemic to a supply-constrained model post-pandemic [4] - The current balance introduces "dual risks," where any contraction in either demand or supply could lead to output declines, necessitating policies that promote simultaneous expansion on both sides [4] Group 2: Inflation and Wage Dynamics - Despite returning to a pre-pandemic labor supply-demand balance, wage inflation remains significantly above pre-pandemic levels, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rising 3.4% year-over-year in Q4, exceeding the 3% threshold aligned with the 2% core PCE inflation target [8][11] - Historical data indicates a stable 1 percentage point gap between ECI and core PCE inflation, suggesting that to achieve the 2% core inflation target, ECI growth must fall to 3% [11] - Structural changes in the labor force, including a reduction of nearly 3 million older workers, contribute to persistent wage inflation, creating additional structural tension in the labor market [11] Group 3: Asset Pricing and Investment Strategy - The anticipated policy shift will reshape asset pricing logic, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve even as inflation rises to the 2.5%-3.5% range [3][16] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken due to narrowing real interest rate differentials, while the U.S. Treasury yield curve faces "bear steepening" pressure, leading to underperformance of long-term bonds compared to cash and other sovereign bonds [3][16] - In this macroeconomic context, equities are likely to outperform bonds, with a tactical recommendation to overweight the MSCI global consumer discretionary sector relative to the industrial sector, which has underperformed by nearly 20% over the past 65 trading days [3][16]