金银巨震，过年该“添金”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has entered a new round of volatile adjustment after a significant drop, with current prices around $5042 per ounce, reflecting a 2.42% increase. The market is expected to experience high volatility post-Spring Festival, driven by macroeconomic narratives and potential short-term declines [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of February 14, 2025, the spot gold price was reported at $5042 per ounce, having rebounded from a low of $4410 per ounce earlier in the month [1]. - Major jewelry brands have launched zodiac-themed gold jewelry for the Year of the Horse, with prices for gold jewelry exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [1][2]. - The China Gold Association forecasts a decline in gold consumption in 2025, with total consumption expected to be 950.096 tons, a 3.57% decrease year-on-year [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The demand for physical gold during the Spring Festival is primarily driven by rigid needs such as weddings, while investment demand may be suppressed by high prices [1][6]. - Young consumers preparing for weddings are opting for cash instead of traditional gold purchases due to high jewelry prices [5]. - The trend indicates that gold is increasingly viewed as part of asset allocation rather than just a traditional gift, supporting sales of both jewelry and gold bars [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies, with leveraged traders being cautioned against holding positions during the Spring Festival due to potential market volatility [1][8]. - Non-leveraged investors may retain core positions in physical gold or ETFs but should avoid increasing exposure during price rebounds [8]. - The overarching principle is to prioritize risk management over short-term gains in a highly volatile market environment [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Post-Spring Festival, gold and silver prices are expected to enter a phase of high volatility, influenced by multiple factors including speculative positions and U.S. Federal Reserve policies [10][11]. - The long-term core logic supporting gold prices remains intact, driven by central bank demand, de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical uncertainties [10][11]. - The ability of gold prices to stabilize above $5000 per ounce is seen as a critical threshold for future market movements [11].