GUOSHENG SECURITIES(SZ:002670) 智通财经网·2026-02-15 02:09Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the recent strong non-farm payrolls and weak CPI data have caused significant disturbances in asset prices, leading to fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The combination of these data suggests that the weaker CPI has somewhat alleviated the hawkish pressure from the strong non-farm data. The firm believes that the Fed may struggle to provide clear signals for easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to oscillate around the dynamics of growth resilience and inflation stickiness. A significant change in policy space is likely to occur after the leadership transition in May, with potential adjustments under Warsh's leadership possibly opening up more room for rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][23]. CPI Summary - In January, the CPI was reported at 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expectations and previous values, marking a three-month decline. The core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but below the previous value. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the 12-month average, while the core CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the 12-month average of 0.2% [2][3]. - Key components of the CPI showed a decline in food prices from 3.1% to 2.9% year-on-year, and energy prices fell from 2.3% to -0.1%. Core goods and services also exhibited slight decreases in inflation rates, indicating persistent service inflation pressures [2][3]. Non-Farm Payroll Summary - The January non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations and the previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, higher than anticipated [6][11]. - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs. Other sectors like professional services and construction showed modest improvements, while information and finance sectors continued to decline [11][16]. Asset Price Movements - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices and bond yields initially rose before declining, with gold prices experiencing similar fluctuations. After the CPI release, stock indices showed mixed results, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, and gold prices increased [18][20]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts fluctuated, with a decrease in anticipated cuts following the non-farm data, but a slight increase after the CPI release. The implied number of rate cuts for 2026 decreased from 2.4 to 2.12 after the non-farm data, while it rose from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI data [20][23]. Future Outlook - The combination of strong non-farm data and sticky service inflation suggests that while employment remains resilient, inflation pressures persist. The Fed is unlikely to signal clear easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to be influenced by these dynamics. A potential shift in policy may occur after the leadership change in May, with the possibility of more significant rate cuts in the latter half of the year [23][24].