2026年楼市反转定调！涨声四起，当下买房，稳抓最后红利

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a historic turnaround in 2026, marking the end of a prolonged downward trend, driven by supportive central and local policies, a recovery in core city transactions, and clear signals of price stabilization [1][3]. Group 1: Market Signals - In January 2026, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities increased by 0.18% month-on-month and 2.52% year-on-year, ending a long-standing trend of month-on-month declines [3]. - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in 26 key cities saw a year-on-year increase of 27.0% and a month-on-month increase of 18.5%, with Beijing recording 15,000 transactions and Shenzhen reaching a 10-month high of 6,802 transactions [3]. - Core areas like Beijing's Haidian and Shanghai's Lujiazui saw listing prices for quality new homes rise by 4% to 6% compared to the end of last year, indicating a shift towards a seller's market [4]. Group 2: Policy and Financial Support - The policy approach in 2026 shifted from "rescuing real estate companies" to "stimulating demand," with comprehensive support from both central and local governments [5]. - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers dropping to 3.5% to 4%, and some cities even seeing rates in the "2" range [5]. - Tax reductions and exemptions, such as the extension of individual income tax refunds for home purchases and a decrease in the value-added tax rate for properties sold within two years, are expected to significantly lower transaction costs [5]. Group 3: Local Policy Initiatives - Over 60 cities have implemented real estate optimization policies as of January 2026, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai easing social security requirements to support home purchases for families and talent [6]. - Local governments are using special bond funds to acquire existing properties, converting them into affordable housing, which enhances buyer confidence [6]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The release of pent-up demand from first-time and upgrading buyers is providing sustained momentum for the market recovery, with urbanization stabilizing and core cities continuing to attract population inflows [8]. - The low-interest-rate environment has significantly reduced borrowing costs, encouraging potential buyers to enter the market rather than waiting for further price declines [8]. - There is a growing demand for quality housing, with premium properties in core cities becoming the main drivers of transactions, creating a positive feedback loop of demand driving prices and prices boosting confidence [8].