3 6 Ke·2026-02-15 03:03Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival film season is experiencing a notable decline in box office performance compared to the previous year, with pre-sale ticket sales significantly lower than in 2025 [2][3] - The film lineup for 2026 lacks the strong blockbuster potential seen in 2025, leading to a cold start for the extended holiday period [2][4] Pre-sale Performance - The pre-sale ticket sales for the 2026 Spring Festival reached approximately 830 million yuan on the first day and exceeded 1 billion yuan by the second day, which is a stark contrast to the over 2 billion yuan achieved in the same period in 2025 [3][4] - The leading film in pre-sales is "Fast Life 3," while several other films have shown weak performance, with three films failing to surpass 20 million yuan in pre-sales [3][4] Box Office Distribution - The box office distribution indicates a concentration of screenings among a few films, with "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening" accounting for nearly 60% of the total screenings [4] - Other films like "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert" and "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear" have limited screening shares, reflecting a significant disparity in market interest [4] Marketing and Promotion - The promotional efforts for the 2026 Spring Festival films have been relatively subdued compared to the previous year, lacking the extensive marketing campaigns that generated buzz in 2025 [4][5] - The absence of engaging promotional activities has contributed to the overall lack of excitement surrounding this year's film offerings [4][5] Industry Trends - The film market's overall performance has been declining, with 2025's box office growth largely driven by a few successful films, indicating a fragile recovery rather than a robust market rebound [5][6] - The traditional peak periods for box office performance are losing their effectiveness, as audience viewing habits shift and competition from other entertainment options increases [6][8] Capital and Investment Strategies - The 2026 Spring Festival films are characterized by a "broad net" co-production strategy, contrasting with the previous year's focus on single blockbuster films [9][10] - This shift reflects a defensive investment approach aimed at mitigating risks in an uncertain market, as many companies face ongoing financial challenges [10][11] Market Outlook - Despite the pre-sale challenges, there has been a recent uptick in stock prices for film-related companies, indicating some investor optimism [11][12] - However, forecasts suggest a potential decline in box office revenue for the 2026 Spring Festival, with estimates around 7.51 billion yuan, representing a 21% decrease from 2025 [12]