全球抛售，中国现有美国国债仅剩6826亿美元，美债光环正在消失

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bonds, once considered a safe haven for global investors, are currently facing an unprecedented trust crisis, marked by significant sell-offs and rising yields, indicating a shift in market perception towards U.S. assets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In April 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced a notable decline, while U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as safe assets, faced historic sell-offs, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from below 3.9% to 4.51% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5% [1]. - The sell-off is attributed to high uncertainty in U.S. policies, particularly threats of "reciprocal tariffs," which have eroded the global credibility of the dollar and U.S. government [3]. - Analysts from Citigroup and Deutsche Bank suggest that this situation indicates a transformation in market dynamics, with U.S. Treasury bonds losing their traditional status as a safe haven during turbulent times [3]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion and continues to grow rapidly, with net interest payments expected to surpass defense spending by 2025, becoming the third-largest budget item [3]. - The International Institute of Finance (IIF) reported that global debt reached $345.7 trillion by September 2025, with developed markets' outstanding debt hitting a historical peak of $230.6 trillion, largely driven by the U.S. [3]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the fiscal deficit will expand from $1.9 trillion in 2025 to $2.5 trillion by 2035, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Erosion - The credibility of the dollar as the world's primary currency is being undermined due to the U.S. government's frequent use of financial sanctions, which has prompted countries to recognize the risks of over-reliance on the dollar [5]. - The political polarization within the U.S. has hindered fiscal reforms, further shaking international investors' long-term confidence in dollar-denominated assets [5]. Group 4: Shift to Gold - A significant shift towards "de-dollarization" is underway, as evidenced by the decline of the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves to 56.32% by Q2 2025, the lowest in 30 years, while gold's share has risen to 20% [6]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, with 634 tons acquired in the first three quarters of 2025 alone, indicating strong official demand for gold [8]. - Gold prices surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to $4,500 per ounce by year-end, marking a cumulative increase of over 70% [8]. Group 5: International Trade and Currency Diversification - Efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar in trade settlements are gaining momentum, with ASEAN countries agreeing to enhance local currency usage in cross-border trade [9]. - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the yuan while reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, employing strategies that include providing low-interest loans to high-debt countries to facilitate trade in yuan [9]. - As of November 2025, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased to $682.6 billion, nearly half of the peak level of approximately $1.32 trillion in 2013, reflecting a tactical reduction in response to U.S. policy unpredictability [12]. Group 6: Global Monetary System Transformation - The international monetary system is undergoing profound changes, with a gradual decline in the dollar's dominance and a shift towards a diversified reserve system involving the dollar, euro, yuan, and gold [14]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves, with many anticipating a moderate to significant decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [14]. - The current dynamics reflect a fundamental shift in reserve management logic, prioritizing security, liquidity, and geopolitical risk diversification over mere yield [14].