美国通胀重回2%？贝森特亮出底牌，大宗商品迎来十年一遇配置窗口

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement that tariffs do not lead to inflation has sparked significant debate, especially given his previous stance that tariffs would raise prices [1] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which is below market expectations and indicates a slowdown from December's 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 2.5%, marking the slowest growth since March 2021 [3] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, market expectations shifted towards the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with predictions of two to three cuts in 2026 [4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the first rate cut in June and a second in September, each by 25 basis points, while some analysts suggest the cuts could exceed current market expectations [4] Group 3 - The decline in inflation has led to a renewed focus on commodities, driven by three macro forces: changes in financial attributes, a shift in demand drivers, and a reallocation of capital [6][7] - The demand for commodities is now linked to broader themes such as the AI revolution, energy transition, and supply chain security, termed "supercycle 2.0" [6] Group 4 - The supply side of commodities is under pressure, with declining ore grades and a lack of large new projects, leading to historically low inventory levels [9] - The chemical sector is experiencing significant value differentiation, with high-end chemical products gaining pricing power compared to traditional petrochemical products [9] Group 5 - Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against credit risk, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, reflecting concerns over the U.S. dollar's credit system [10] - Predictions for gold prices in 2026 range between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce, while silver's industrial demand is also expected to rise due to its dual financial and industrial roles [10] Group 6 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting, moving away from reliance on single-country urbanization to a new paradigm driven by technological revolution, energy security, and geopolitical dynamics [11] - The focus is now on tangible "hard materials" that support these transformations, with attributes of copper, silver, specialty chemicals, and gold becoming critical for future wealth allocation [11]