美国情人节巧克力价格大幅上涨原料短缺推高零售成本

Core Insights - The U.S. chocolate market is experiencing significant price increases ahead of Valentine's Day 2026, primarily due to a global cocoa bean supply shortage [1][4]. Price Trends - According to Datasembly, chocolate consumer prices in the U.S. rose by 14.4% year-on-year from January 1 to early February, surpassing last year's increase of 7.8% and the 10.5% rise in 2024 [4]. - Cocoa futures prices have surged from approximately $2,500 per ton in mid-2022 to over $12,600 per ton by the end of 2024, driven by reduced supply from West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world's cocoa [4]. Regional Variations - Certain cities have seen even higher price increases, with chocolate prices rising by 17% in Denver and Los Angeles, and by 19% in the Dallas-Fort Worth area [4]. Industry Response - Companies like Hershey are facing unprecedented cocoa price hikes, although recent cocoa prices have dropped below $4,000 per ton [4]. - The retail price decline is expected to be slow and uneven, with some relief anticipated around Easter and a gradual return to normalcy by Halloween [4]. Policy Impact - To alleviate cost pressures, the U.S. has exempted cocoa and other agricultural products from high import tariffs, a move welcomed by companies in the industry [5]. - The National Confectioners Association reports that chocolate accounts for about 75% of Valentine's Day candy sales, making it the most popular gift for the holiday [5]. Consumer Spending - The National Retail Federation projects that U.S. consumers will spend $2.6 billion on candy during this Valentine's Day season [5].