特朗普关税裁决即将出炉，1月PCE是否扰动降息前景丨下周外盘看点

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.23%, Nasdaq down 2.10%, and S&P 500 down 1.39% for the week [2] - European indices showed gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.74%, DAX 30 up 0.78%, and CAC 40 up 0.46% [2] - Upcoming key data includes U.S. GDP, PCE inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which will help assess the likelihood of future interest rate cuts [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated strong U.S. employment, with 130,000 jobs added in January, suggesting limited short-term rate cut potential [3] - However, lower-than-expected inflation data has reignited expectations for a rate cut, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut by July [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are expected to clarify the debate between maintaining rates and supporting rate cuts [3] Legal and Trade Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce a decision on the legality of the Trump administration's tariffs on February 20, with a 28% probability of supporting the tariffs according to market predictions [4] - A negative ruling could lead to over $130 billion in tariff refunds and reshape U.S. trade policy [4] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.04% to $62.89 per barrel and Brent down 0.44% to $67.75 per barrel, amid concerns over Middle Eastern tensions and OPEC+ production outlook [5] - Gold futures rose 1.43% to $5022.00 per ounce, and silver futures increased 1.45% to $77.851 per ounce, driven by expectations of lower interest rates [5][6] Economic Indicators in Europe - Upcoming PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be crucial for assessing economic outlook, with expectations of slight improvements in services but a contraction in manufacturing [7] - Key indicators include Eurozone industrial output and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index [7] UK Economic Data - The UK is set to release significant employment data and January CPI, with inflation remaining above the Bank of England's target at 3.4% [8] - The market anticipates a 63% probability of a rate cut by March, especially if inflation shows further signs of easing [8]