达利欧万字长文：旧秩序已死，世界重回“丛林法则”，贸易战和资本战将成常态

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of a "big cycle," characterized by chaos, power struggles, and the breakdown of the post-World War II order established in 1945 [1][9] Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - The post-World War II order has been declared dead, with leaders from major countries acknowledging the end of this era and the need to prepare for conflict [1][2] - International relations will now follow "jungle law," lacking a supernational authority to resolve disputes, leading to conflicts being settled through threats or warfare [1][10] - The current geopolitical landscape is marked by a return to power politics, where traditional norms and laws are disregarded [1][2] Group 2: Types of Conflicts - There are five main forms of conflict between nations: trade/economic wars, technology wars, geopolitical wars, capital wars, and military wars [3][10] - The first four types of conflict often escalate before military confrontations occur, creating a cycle of tension and competition [3][12] - The dynamics of these conflicts are influenced by the "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing parties are uncertain of each other's intentions, leading to an escalation of hostilities [3][12] Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Warfare - The article draws parallels to the 1930s, where economic turmoil led to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately contributing to World War II [4][24] - Economic warfare, such as tariffs and sanctions, was prevalent before the outbreak of military conflict, exemplified by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and oil embargoes [4][24][38] - Historical market performance during wartime shows that stock markets can rise during initial military successes but may ultimately collapse following defeat [4][28] Group 4: Capital Warfare - Capital warfare tools are increasingly being utilized, including asset freezes, market access restrictions, and trade embargoes [5][6][7] - These strategies aim to undermine opponents' economic stability and restrict their access to essential resources [6][7][38] - The use of capital warfare reflects a shift towards weaponizing economic tools in international relations [5][6] Group 5: Wealth Logic During War - During wartime, governments typically impose strict controls, leading to currency devaluation and increased debt issuance to fund military efforts [8][24] - Historical evidence suggests that gold is often the best store of wealth during conflicts, as traditional financial assets may lose value [8][24] - The management of power dynamics and economic policies during periods of conflict is crucial for mitigating the impacts of upheaval [8][24]