达利欧万字长文：旧秩序已死，贸易战和资本战将成常态

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of a "big cycle," characterized by chaos, lack of rules, and power as the primary principle, marking the end of the post-World War II order established in 1945 [1][9] Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - The post-World War II order has been declared dead by global leaders, with significant figures like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizing the need to prepare for conflict in this new era [1][9] - The international relations will follow "jungle law," where conflicts between major powers will not be resolved through legal means but through threats or warfare, leading to trade wars, technology wars, geopolitical conflicts, and capital wars [1][11] Group 2: Capital Markets and Investment Implications - The current phase signifies a period of extreme uncertainty for capital markets, with economic tools being weaponized, and traditional safe-haven logic potentially failing [2] - Investors must be aware that wealth and power transfers will occur in drastic ways during this stage, as historical patterns indicate that military parity between opposing powers increases the risk of war [2][16] Group 3: Types of Conflicts - There are five main forms of conflict between nations: trade/economic wars, technology wars, geopolitical wars, capital wars, and military wars, with the first four often escalating before military conflict occurs [3][12] - The current global situation reflects a "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing sides are trapped in a cycle of escalation due to mutual distrust [3][12] Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The article draws parallels to the 1930s, where economic turmoil led to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately contributing to World War II [4][23] - Historical examples illustrate that economic warfare often precedes military conflict, as seen in the lead-up to World War II, where nations engaged in trade wars and sanctions before open hostilities began [4][35] Group 5: Capital Warfare Strategies - Capital warfare tools are increasingly being utilized, including asset freezes, market access restrictions, and trade embargoes, which pose significant risks to traditional financial asset safety [5][6][7] - The article highlights that during conflicts, governments typically impose strict controls over economic activities, including rationing, price controls, and capital controls, which can lead to significant market volatility [8][41]